John Fredericks Commentary: Super Bowl Selection – It’s Now or Never

Well here we are. Brady Vs. Mahones. Old vs.Young. Grizzled veteran vs. new phenom. Out with the old, in with the new.

I’m 6-6 ATS in the NFL playoffs, so this game makes it breaks it for my record: 7-6 beats 6-7.

I have bet against Brady all three playoff games, going 1-2, the only win coming when the WFC covered a plus 9 play. Why stop now.

I love Kansas City today minus 3. I also bet the money line, just in case, laying 162-100.

Here’s why: they are a better team, with more weapons, and too much speed. As soon as Mahomes starts running around and drawing up plays in the dirt, it’s a track meet. Watching this kid throw those laser beams across his body while scrambling in the opposite direction is not human. I think he’s a bot.

The teams met earlier this season with the Chiefs pulling out a three-point win. History shows that when two Super Bowl teams met in regular the season, the loser of the first game won 6 out of 7 Super Bowls, favoring Tampa Bay.

According to DraftKings the majority of sports bettors (and their money) are throwing down hard on the Chiefs. Kansas City is currently seeing 70 percent of the point spread bets with 48 percent of the handle. The opening odds started with the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites–and was quickly bet down to minus 3 by the big money Vegas wise guys.

However, the public then started leaning toward the Bucs on Friday, when the sentimental wagers started flowing in for the veteran.

The loss of OT Eric Fisher could be significant for the Chiefs, but the return of Sammy Watkins and Le’Veon Baell could help them become more potent on the offensive end than they have been during the playoffs. The absence of the anchor of Kansas City’s offensive line – Fisher- could help Tampa Bay shave a couple points off its three-point loss to the Chiefs from earlier this season.

In the end, the Chiefs defense is decent, and if they contain Brady with consistent pressure the Bucs could be in for a tough night. The problem with betting against Kansas City is that they can score so fast. You can see a 21-7 Tampa lead evaporate in three minutes.

Brady and the Bucs have had a miraculous season, winning all three playoff games on the road against very good teams. I believe Cinderella’s carriage goes back to a pumpkin for Tampa Bay on Sunday night.

Chiefs Minus 3 – BEST BET 

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